Russia's Fake Missile Test Warning to New Zealand Raises Concerns
Russia's warning of a planned missile launch in the Southern Ocean has raised concerns about the country's intentions and its use of hybrid warfare tactics.
The exchange between New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at an APEC meeting in Japan in 2010 has become a New Zealand urban legend. Medvedev responded to Key's question about how long it would take a Russian missile to reach New Zealand by saying "22 minutes," then added with a smirk, "I will call you in advance."
This week, the Russians seem to have replayed the joke - for real this time. The Russian Air Traffic Management Corporation gave the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) an alarming warning of planned "space activity" in an area of the Southern Ocean managed by New Zealand authorities. The CAA's follow-up Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) identified the activity as a missile launch.
New Zealand has experienced the landing of Russian space debris in its territory before, but never a missile launch. However, it appears that Russia's warning is a dummy warning of a dummy missile - an information operation and another example of Russia's reckless hybrid warfare.
## Russia's Warning and Its Implications
NOTAM NZZO B3996/26 reported a foreign agency missile launch and returning space debris until August 27, imposing flight restrictions from 58 and 68 degrees south. The area is approximately 1,900 km southwest of New Zealand's South Island, in the Southern Ocean-Antarctic flight region, near the Ross Sea.
There is no international law specifically regulating submarines conducting missile launches in international waters, let alone fake missile launches. Russia, like China, appears to be using international rules - and the gaps in those rules - as a shield for an act of intimidation and show of force.
## The Antarctic Region and Its Strategic Importance
The only flights that travel in the Ross Sea are U.S., New Zealand, and Australian military planes. They form an international Antarctic flight pool carrying scientists to bases in the Ross Sea area: the U.S. McMurdo and South Pole stations; New Zealand's Scott Base; South Korea's Jang Bogo Station and Italy's Mario Zucchelli Station.
Personnel from China's two Ross Sea bases, one of them only 30 kilometers from South Korea's base, are not included in this logistics pool. This is likely no accident, but a response to China's aggressive acts elsewhere, including military support for Russia's war against Ukraine.
## Russia's Military Exercises and Its Intentions
After Russia issued its warning, a U.S. Air Force C-17 Antarctic flight was turned back from Christchurch a few hours into its journey on the afternoon of August 18. The Antarctic C-17s are flown by active-duty and Air Force Reserve crews from the 62nd and 446th Airlift Wings at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in the U.S. state of Washington.
Antarctic analysts have often speculated that the bases there could be an early target in a global conflict. The U.S., Russian, and Chinese Antarctic programs all host global navigation satellite system (GNSS) ground stations - GPS, GLONASS and BeiDou - which are used for nuclear missile timing and positioning, as well as other facilities with dual civil-military capabilities.
## The Strategic Environment and Its Implications
Russia's Pacific Fleet is responsible for more than near-seas border protection. It provides Russia's nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific and protects sea lines of communication. Russia has also strengthened its position in the Blue Pacific through recently announced joint patrols with the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), as well as cooperation with India and North Korea.
Since the Cold War, the U.S.-led strategic architecture in the Pacific has sought to limit Russian and Chinese strategic access through a network of hub-and-spoke defense pacts and installations along the three island chains. Antarctica represents the southernmost reach of the Third Island Chain.
That architecture appeared somewhat frayed this week, with the last U.S. aircraft carrier stationed in the Pacific departing for duties in the Middle East. Last year after launching military exercises in the Tasman Sea, China boasted of the "normalization of the deployment" of PLA forces in the South Pacific. The removal of the U.S. aircraft carrier has thus unnerved the U.S. Indo-Pacific allies considerably.
| **Country** | **Number of Vessels** | **Number of Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs)** | | --- | --- | --- | | China | 234 | 6 | | Russia | 80 | 6 |
The U.S. Indo-Pacific allies' navies combined are no match for the PLAN's 234 vessels and six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) plus the Russian Pacific fleet's 80 major warships and submarines, which include six SSBNs.
## Conclusion
Russia's fake missile-launch warning this week has raised concerns about the country's intentions and its use of hybrid warfare tactics. The warning appears to be an elaborate - and menacing - Russian prank, designed to intimidate and show force. It is time for New Zealand and its allies to think about how to future-proof their interests and protect their strategic environment in the face of an increasingly complex and challenging strategic environment.
